Santa Cruz vs CSA — Copa do Nordeste 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 13+ matches
Santa Cruz43%
CSA30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Santa Cruz creates 26% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Cruz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches
CSA away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Cruz attack 1.46 + CSA defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36
CSA attack 0.63 + Santa Cruz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Santa Cruz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
2 previous meetings · small sample
Vitoria
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
Confiança
ABC
Bahia
Ceara
Retrô
ASA
Sousa
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
Botafogo PB
Juazeirense
CRB
America-RN
Imperatriz
PiauíCSA
AO Itabaiana
Jacuipense
MaranhãoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Santa Cruz host CSA on Saturday, 20 March 2021 at 21:15. The match is part of the Copa do Nordeste 2020/2021 season.
Copa do Nordeste: Santa Cruz 1–2 CSA
CSA beat Santa Cruz 2-1 in Copa do Nordeste on March 20, 2021.
Goals: Dellatorre (5', 53'), Chiquinho (87' pen).
The match was played at Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel in Recife, Pernambuco.