Santa Cruz 0–1 Central SC: Result & Stats | Serie D

Santa Cruz

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central SC

Ze Artur 78'

6/29/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santa Cruz45%

×Draw31%

Central SC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CruzExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.76

Santa Cruz

1.14

Central SC

0.76

Santa Cruz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

1.33

creates per match

0.84

0.67

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Santa Cruz

1.33

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Santa Cruz

0.67

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Santa Cruz or draw

76%

Santa Cruz or Central SC

69%

Draw or Central SC

55%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

19%

Central SC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

32%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

11%

Central SC 1+ goals

53%

Central SC 2+ goals

18%

Central SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

65%

Central SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 27 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz attack 1.33 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Central SC attack 0.84 + Santa Cruz defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santa Cruz scores more

45%

level

31%

Central SC scores more

24%

Santa Cruz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'

Matheus Vinicius

78'

Ze Artur

Santa

Central

Manager: Marcelo Cabo

Manager: Leandro Sena