Santa Cruz RN 1–0 Sousa: Result & Stats | Serie D

Santa Cruz RN

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sousa

Guizao 75'

4/19/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio José Nazareno do Nascimento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santa Cruz RN46%

×Draw34%

Sousa20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Cruz RNExpected goals in this matchSousa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.57

Santa Cruz RN

1.04

Sousa

0.57

Santa Cruz RN creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.71

creates per match

0.29

0.86

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Santa Cruz RN

0.71

Sousa

0.29

allows per match

Santa Cruz RN

0.86

Sousa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz RN+0.00on par

Sousa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz RN ↓

Sousa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Santa Cruz RN or draw

80%

Santa Cruz RN or Sousa

66%

Draw or Sousa

54%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz RN wins by 2+

19%

Sousa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Santa Cruz RN 1+ goals

65%

Santa Cruz RN 2+ goals

28%

Santa Cruz RN 3+ goals

9%

Sousa 1+ goals

43%

Sousa 2+ goals

11%

Sousa 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz RN (draw refunded)

70%

Sousa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz RN at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Sousa away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz RN attack 0.71 + Sousa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Sousa attack 0.29 + Santa Cruz RN defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Cruz RN scores more

46%

level

34%

Sousa scores more

20%

Santa Cruz RN at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santa Cruz RN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Guizao

Santa

Sousa

Manager: Eugênio Gomes

Santa Cruz RN substitutes

HitaloGustavinhoThálissonCostaRanieryHenzCafuLopesFlorGleydsonVitinhoWesley

Manager: Francisco Diá

Sousa substitutes

DiasRodriguesNunesBastosSantosVitorJacaréGustavinhoRafaelMatheusinho

Serie D: Santa Cruz RN 1–0 Sousa

Santa Cruz RN beat Sousa 1-0 in Serie D on April 19, 2025.

Goals: Guizao (75').

The match was played at Estádio José Nazareno do Nascimento in Goianinha, Rio Grande do Norte.

Santa Cruz RN vs Sousa — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Santa Cruz RN 1–0 Sousa