Santa Cruz MT 1–1 Sorriso: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz MT

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sorriso

5/17/2026

Matogrossense 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santa Cruz MT29%

×Draw25%

Sorriso46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Cruz MTExpected goals in this matchSorriso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.53

Santa Cruz MT

1.15

Sorriso

1.53

Sorriso creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

2.20

0.86

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Santa Cruz MT

1.29

Sorriso

2.20

allows per match

Santa Cruz MT

0.86

Sorriso

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Sorriso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz MT ↓

Sorriso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santa Cruz MT or draw

54%

Santa Cruz MT or Sorriso

75%

Draw or Sorriso

71%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

11%

Sorriso wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

32%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

11%

Sorriso 1+ goals

78%

Sorriso 2+ goals

45%

Sorriso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

38%

Sorriso (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz MT at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Sorriso away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz MT attack 1.29 + Sorriso defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sorriso attack 2.20 + Santa Cruz MT defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Cruz MT scores more

29%

level

25%

Sorriso scores more

46%

Sorriso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sorriso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff