Santa Cruz MT 3–1 Cáceres: Result & Stats

Santa Cruz MT

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cáceres

5/19/2024

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Lamartine Ribeiro Salles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Santa Cruz MT36%

×Draw29%

Cáceres35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Cruz MTExpected goals in this matchCáceres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.13

Santa Cruz MT

1.15

Cáceres

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

1.40

0.86

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Santa Cruz MT

1.29

Cáceres

1.40

allows per match

Santa Cruz MT

0.86

Cáceres

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Cáceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz MT ↓

Cáceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Cruz MT or draw

65%

Santa Cruz MT or Cáceres

71%

Draw or Cáceres

64%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

15%

Cáceres wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

68%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

32%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

11%

Cáceres 1+ goals

68%

Cáceres 2+ goals

31%

Cáceres 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

51%

Cáceres (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz MT at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Cáceres away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz MT attack 1.29 + Cáceres defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Cáceres attack 1.40 + Santa Cruz MT defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Santa Cruz MT scores more

36%

level

29%

Cáceres scores more

35%

Santa Cruz MT at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Santa Cruz MT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff