Santa Cruz MT 3–0 Atlético Matogrossense

Santa Cruz MT

FT

3 – 0

Atlético Matogrossense

7/6/2025

Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santa Cruz MT68%

×Draw21%

Atlético Matogrossense12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Cruz MTExpected goals in this matchAtlético Matogrossense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.65

Santa Cruz MT

1.93

Atlético Matogrossense

0.65

Santa Cruz MT creates 197% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.43

0.86

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Santa Cruz MT

1.29

Atlético Matogrossense

0.43

allows per match

Santa Cruz MT

0.86

Atlético Matogrossense

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Atlético Matogrossense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Cruz MT ↓

Atlético Matogrossense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Santa Cruz MT or draw

88%

Santa Cruz MT or Atlético Matogrossense

79%

Draw or Atlético Matogrossense

32%

Winning margin

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

42%

Atlético Matogrossense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

85%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

57%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

30%

Atlético Matogrossense 1+ goals

48%

Atlético Matogrossense 2+ goals

14%

Atlético Matogrossense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

85%

Atlético Matogrossense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Cruz MT at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Atlético Matogrossense away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Cruz MT attack 1.29 + Atlético Matogrossense defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.93

Atlético Matogrossense attack 0.43 + Santa Cruz MT defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Santa Cruz MT scores more

68%

level

21%

Atlético Matogrossense scores more

12%

Santa Cruz MT at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Santa Cruz MT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff