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Santa Clara vs Penafiel — Segunda Liga 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Penafiel
Penafiel
9/16/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 5Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Clara54%
×Draw27%
Penafiel19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.44
Penafiel
0.74

Santa Clara creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.47
Penafiel
1.01

allows per match

Santa Clara
0.47
Penafiel
1.41

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Penafiel+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Penafiel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
81%
Santa Clara or Penafiel
73%
Draw or Penafiel
46%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
27%
Penafiel wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
76%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
42%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
18%
Penafiel 1+ goals
52%
Penafiel 2+ goals
17%
Penafiel 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
74%
Penafiel (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Penafiel away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.47 + Penafiel defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Penafiel attack 1.01 + Santa Clara defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Santa Clara scores more
54%
level
27%
Penafiel scores more
19%

Santa Clara at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Clara vs Penafiel

Santa Clara and Penafiel drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores.