Santa Clara 2–0 Pacos Ferreira: Result & Stats

Santa Clara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Pacos Ferreira

5/8/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 33Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Santa Clara44%

×Draw27%

Pacos Ferreira29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ClaraExpected goals in this matchPacos Ferreira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.06

Santa Clara

1.36

Pacos Ferreira

1.06

Santa Clara creates 28% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 68 away

1.22

creates per match

0.90

1.23

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Santa Clara

1.22

Pacos Ferreira

0.90

allows per match

Santa Clara

1.23

Pacos Ferreira

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par

Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Pacos Ferreira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw

71%

Santa Clara or Pacos Ferreira

73%

Draw or Pacos Ferreira

56%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+

20%

Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals

74%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

39%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

16%

Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals

65%

Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals

29%

Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

60%

Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.22 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pacos Ferreira attack 0.90 + Santa Clara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santa Clara scores more

44%

level

27%

Pacos Ferreira scores more

29%

Santa Clara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff