Santa Clara 1–3 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

Santa Clara

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Guimaraes

Rildo 64'

André Silva 44'

Alisson Safira 30', 22'

3/5/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 23Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Santa Clara41%

×Draw28%

Guimaraes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ClaraExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.04

Santa Clara

1.24

Guimaraes

1.04

Santa Clara creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

1.13

creates per match

1.20

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Santa Clara

1.13

Guimaraes

1.20

allows per match

Santa Clara

0.89

Guimaraes

1.35

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Santa Clara-0.17scores less

Guimaraes-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw

69%

Santa Clara or Guimaraes

72%

Draw or Guimaraes

59%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+

18%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals

71%

Santa Clara 2+ goals

35%

Santa Clara 3+ goals

13%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

65%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

28%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)

57%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.89 · 24 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.13 + Guimaraes defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Guimaraes attack 1.20 + Santa Clara defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santa Clara scores more

41%

level

28%

Guimaraes scores more

31%

Santa Clara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Alisson Safira

Guimaraes · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

Alisson Safira↳ André Silva

30'

Alisson Safira

34'

Kento Misao

42'

Rildo← Ricardinho

44'

André Silva↳ Rafa

62'

Costinha← Gabriel Silva

62'

W. González← K. Tagawa

62'

Victor Bobsin← Bruno Almeida

64'

Rildo↳ Victor Bobsin

66'

RildoGoal confirmed

67'

N. Janvier← Dani Silva

67'

Anderson Silva← Alisson Safira

79'

Nélson Luz← André Silva

79'

M. Johnston← Jota Silva

80'

MT← Xavi Quintillà

90+10'

Walter González

90+1'

Costinha

90+9'

Pedro Rafael Oliveira

90+3'

Matheus Índio← André André

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaGuimaraes

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots12

7Corners6

16Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots12

5On Target6

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box6

10Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

543Total Passes381

459Accurate Passes293

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1