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Santa Clara vs Feirense — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
FT
0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
7/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Santa Clara57%
×Draw29%
Feirense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.33
Feirense
0.50

Santa Clara creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.67
Feirense
0.33

allows per match

Santa Clara
0.67
Feirense
1.00

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
86%
Santa Clara or Feirense
71%
Draw or Feirense
43%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
28%
Feirense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
74%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
38%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
15%
Feirense 1+ goals
39%
Feirense 2+ goals
9%
Feirense 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
80%
Feirense (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Feirense away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.67 + Feirense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Feirense attack 0.33 + Santa Clara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Santa Clara scores more
57%
level
29%
Feirense scores more
14%

Santa Clara at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Clara vs Feirense

Santa Clara and Feirense drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 6, 2021.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.