Santa Clara vs Chaves — Taça de Portugal 2018
Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Santa Clara39%
Chaves35%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 3 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Santa Clara ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Santa Clara at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches
Chaves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Santa Clara attack 1.67 + Chaves defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42
Chaves attack 1.33 + Santa Clara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Santa Clara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Santa Clara host Chaves on Sunday, 25 November 2018 at 17:00. The match is part of the Taça de Portugal 2018/2019 season.
Taça de Portugal: Santa Clara 1–2 Chaves
Chaves beat Santa Clara 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on November 25, 2018.
Goals: Platiny (25'), André Luis (30'), Fábio Cardoso (58').
The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel (Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores).