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Santa Clara vs Boavista — Primeira Liga 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Boavista
Boavista
2/4/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 19Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Santa Clara44%
×Draw26%
Boavista29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.45
Boavista
1.13

Santa Clara creates 28% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.22
Boavista
1.03

allows per match

Santa Clara
1.23
Boavista
1.68

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Boavista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
71%
Santa Clara or Boavista
74%
Draw or Boavista
56%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
22%
Boavista wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
77%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
42%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
18%
Boavista 1+ goals
68%
Boavista 2+ goals
31%
Boavista 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
60%
Boavista (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.68 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.22 + Boavista defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Boavista attack 1.03 + Santa Clara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santa Clara scores more
44%
level
26%
Boavista scores more
29%

Santa Clara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Clara vs Boavista

Santa Clara and Boavista drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores.