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Santa Clara vs Benfica B — Segunda Liga 2018

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Benfica B
Benfica B
10/29/2023Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 8Estádio de São Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Santa Clara51%
×Draw26%
Benfica B23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Clara
1.50
Benfica B
0.91

Santa Clara creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 133 away

creates per match

Santa Clara
1.47
Benfica B
1.35

allows per match

Santa Clara
0.47
Benfica B
1.53

finishing

Santa Clara+0.00on par
Benfica B+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Clara ↓

Benfica B →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santa Clara or draw
77%
Santa Clara or Benfica B
74%
Draw or Benfica B
49%

Winning margin

Santa Clara wins by 2+
26%
Benfica B wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Clara 1+ goals
78%
Santa Clara 2+ goals
44%
Santa Clara 3+ goals
19%
Benfica B 1+ goals
60%
Benfica B 2+ goals
23%
Benfica B 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santa Clara (draw refunded)
69%
Benfica B (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Clara at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Benfica B away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Clara attack 1.47 + Benfica B defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Benfica B attack 1.35 + Santa Clara defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santa Clara scores more
51%
level
26%
Benfica B scores more
23%

Santa Clara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santa Clara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Santa Clara 1–1 Benfica B

Santa Clara and Benfica B drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Miguel in Ponta Delgada, Ilha de São Miguel, Açores.