Santa Catarina 0–0 Camboriú: Result & Stats

Santa Catarina

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Camboriú

8/10/2024

Catarinense - 2 · Semi-finalsEstádio Municipal Alfredo João Krieck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Santa Catarina61%

×Draw27%

Camboriú12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa CatarinaExpected goals in this matchCamboriú

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.48

Santa Catarina

1.42

Camboriú

0.48

Santa Catarina creates 196% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

0.55

0.42

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Santa Catarina

1.67

Camboriú

0.55

allows per match

Santa Catarina

0.42

Camboriú

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catarina+0.00on par

Camboriú+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catarina ↓

Camboriú →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Santa Catarina or draw

88%

Santa Catarina or Camboriú

73%

Draw or Camboriú

39%

Winning margin

Santa Catarina wins by 2+

31%

Camboriú wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Santa Catarina 1+ goals

76%

Santa Catarina 2+ goals

41%

Santa Catarina 3+ goals

17%

Camboriú 1+ goals

38%

Camboriú 2+ goals

8%

Camboriú 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Santa Catarina (draw refunded)

83%

Camboriú (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catarina at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Camboriú away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catarina attack 1.67 + Camboriú defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Camboriú attack 0.55 + Santa Catarina defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Santa Catarina scores more

61%

level

27%

Camboriú scores more

12%

Santa Catarina at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Santa Catarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff