Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santa Catarina vs Caçador — Catarinense - 2 2026

Santa Catarina
Santa Catarina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caçador
Caçador
Unknown 59', 55', 39'
5/28/2023Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 1Estádio Municipal Alfredo João Krieck

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Santa Catarina82%
×Draw14%
Caçador4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catarina
2.33
Caçador
0.33

Santa Catarina creates 606% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Santa Catarina
1.67
Caçador
0.25

allows per match

Santa Catarina
0.42
Caçador
3.00

finishing

Santa Catarina+0.00on par
Caçador+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catarina ↓

Caçador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–019%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–015%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santa Catarina or draw
96%
Santa Catarina or Caçador
86%
Draw or Caçador
18%

Winning margin

Santa Catarina wins by 2+
59%
Caçador wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Santa Catarina 1+ goals
90%
Santa Catarina 2+ goals
67%
Santa Catarina 3+ goals
41%
Caçador 1+ goals
28%
Caçador 2+ goals
4%
Caçador 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Santa Catarina (draw refunded)
95%
Caçador (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catarina at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Caçador away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catarina attack 1.67 + Caçador defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Caçador attack 0.25 + Santa Catarina defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Santa Catarina scores more
82%
level
14%
Caçador scores more
4%

Santa Catarina at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Santa Catarina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
55'
59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Catarina vs Caçador

Santa Catarina beat Caçador 3-0 in Catarinense - 2 on May 28, 2023.

Goals: ? (39', 55', 59').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Alfredo João Krieck in Rio do Sul, Santa Catarina.