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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Santanyí — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Santanyí
Santanyí
11/16/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 13Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético37%
×Draw27%
Santanyí36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.25
Santanyí
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Santanyí
1.17

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Santanyí
1.42

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Santanyí+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Santanyí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
64%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Santanyí
73%
Draw or Santanyí
63%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
16%
Santanyí wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
71%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
36%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
13%
Santanyí 1+ goals
71%
Santanyí 2+ goals
35%
Santanyí 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
50%
Santanyí (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Santanyí away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Santanyí defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Santanyí attack 1.17 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
37%
level
27%
Santanyí scores more
36%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Catalina Atlético 3 – 2 Santanyí

Santa Catalina Atlético beat Santanyí 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.