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Santa Catalina Atlético vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
2/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético38%
×Draw27%
PE Sant Jordi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
PE Sant Jordi
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 65 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
65%
Santa Catalina Atlético or PE Sant Jordi
73%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
62%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
17%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
73%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
38%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
14%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
71%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
36%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
52%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.31

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
38%
level
27%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
35%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Santa Catalina Atlético 0–2 PE Sant Jordi

PE Sant Jordi beat Santa Catalina Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.