Santa Catalina Atlético 0–2 Mallorca II

Santa Catalina Atlético

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca II

4/5/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético21%

×Draw25%

Mallorca II55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Catalina AtléticoExpected goals in this matchMallorca II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.64

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.90

Mallorca II

1.64

Mallorca II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 80 away

1.07

creates per match

1.96

1.31

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.07

Mallorca II

1.96

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Mallorca II

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Mallorca II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Mallorca II →

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw

45%

Santa Catalina Atlético or Mallorca II

75%

Draw or Mallorca II

79%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

Mallorca II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

59%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

23%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

Mallorca II 1+ goals

81%

Mallorca II 2+ goals

49%

Mallorca II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

27%

Mallorca II (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Mallorca II away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.72 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Mallorca II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Mallorca II attack 1.96 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

21%

level

25%

Mallorca II scores more

55%

Mallorca II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mallorca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Mallorca II

Mallorca II beat Santa Catalina Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 5, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.

Santa Catalina Atlético vs Mallorca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Mallorca II