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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Llosetense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
CANC
00:00
Llosetense
Llosetense
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 35Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético34%
×Draw27%
Llosetense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.21
Llosetense
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 116 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Llosetense
1.31

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Llosetense
1.34

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Llosetense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
61%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Llosetense
73%
Draw or Llosetense
66%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
14%
Llosetense wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
34%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Llosetense 1+ goals
73%
Llosetense 2+ goals
38%
Llosetense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
47%
Llosetense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
34%
level
27%
Llosetense scores more
39%

Llosetense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llosetense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santa Catalina Atlético host Llosetense

April 26, 2020: Santa Catalina Atlético take on Llosetense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santa Catalina Atlético host Llosetense at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.