Santa Catalina Atlético 0–1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Santa Catalina Atlético

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

José Arias 16'

1/11/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético19%

×Draw24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Catalina AtléticoExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.66

Santa Catalina Atlético

0.83

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.66

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 100% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

1.07

creates per match

2.00

1.31

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.07

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw

43%

Santa Catalina Atlético or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

81%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

56%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

20%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

49%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

19%

level

24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

57%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Onofre Riera← Dailos Tejera

16'

José Arias

70'

Héctor Escrich← Mesquida

73'

Cala← Melo

77'

I. Accornero← Joshue

80'

Juan Cerezo← Precious Osayande

84'

Rafael Barragán← Colau

Santa

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Dani Vaquer

70'▲Héctor Escrich←▼Mesquida

77'▲I. Accornero←▼Joshue

80'▲Juan Cerezo←▼Precious Osayande

Santa Catalina Atlético substitutes

EscrichAccorneroCerezo

Manager: José Pérez

13'▲Onofre Riera←▼Dailos Tejera

73'▲Cala←▼Melo

84'▲Rafael Barragán←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RieraCalaBarragán

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Santa Catalina Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 11, 2020.

Goals: José Arias (16').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.

Santa Catalina Atlético vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas