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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Génova — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Génova
Génova
5/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 4Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético50%
×Draw26%
Génova24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.54
Génova
0.99

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 56% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Génova
0.67

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Génova
2.00

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Génova+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Génova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
76%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Génova
74%
Draw or Génova
50%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
26%
Génova wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
79%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
45%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
20%
Génova 1+ goals
63%
Génova 2+ goals
26%
Génova 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
67%
Génova (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Génova away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Génova defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Génova attack 0.67 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
50%
level
26%
Génova scores more
24%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Catalina Atlético 3 – 0 Génova

Santa Catalina Atlético beat Génova 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.