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Santa Catalina Atlético vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Santa Catalina Atlético
Santa Catalina Atlético
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Esporles
Esporles
11/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 11Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético53%
×Draw25%
Esporles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.63
Esporles
0.94

Santa Catalina Atlético creates 73% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.07
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético
1.31
Esporles
2.18

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw
78%
Santa Catalina Atlético or Esporles
75%
Draw or Esporles
47%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+
29%
Esporles wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals
80%
Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals
48%
Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals
22%
Esporles 1+ goals
61%
Esporles 2+ goals
24%
Esporles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)
71%
Esporles (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Esporles attack 0.57 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more
53%
level
25%
Esporles scores more
22%

Santa Catalina Atlético at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Catalina Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Catalina Atlético 1 – 1 Esporles

Santa Catalina Atlético and Esporles drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 1, 2019.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.