Santa Catalina Atlético 2–3 Andratx: Result & Stats

Santa Catalina Atlético

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Andratx

2/15/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 24Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Catalina Atlético28%

×Draw25%

Andratx47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa Catalina AtléticoExpected goals in this matchAndratx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.56

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.15

Andratx

1.56

Andratx creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

1.07

creates per match

1.80

1.31

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.07

Andratx

1.80

allows per match

Santa Catalina Atlético

1.31

Andratx

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Catalina Atlético+0.00on par

Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Catalina Atlético ↓

Andratx →

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Catalina Atlético or draw

53%

Santa Catalina Atlético or Andratx

75%

Draw or Andratx

72%

Winning margin

Santa Catalina Atlético wins by 2+

11%

Andratx wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Santa Catalina Atlético 1+ goals

68%

Santa Catalina Atlético 2+ goals

32%

Santa Catalina Atlético 3+ goals

11%

Andratx 1+ goals

79%

Andratx 2+ goals

46%

Andratx 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Santa Catalina Atlético (draw refunded)

38%

Andratx (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Catalina Atlético at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Catalina Atlético attack 1.07 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Andratx attack 1.80 + Santa Catalina Atlético defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santa Catalina Atlético scores more

28%

level

25%

Andratx scores more

47%

Andratx at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Andratx

Andratx beat Santa Catalina Atlético 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Son Flor in Palma.

Santa Catalina Atlético vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Catalina Atlético vs Andratx