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Santa Anastasia vs Robres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Santa Anastasia
Santa Anastasia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Robres
Robres
4/3/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 30Estadio Fontanazas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Anastasia38%
×Draw28%
Robres33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Anastasia
1.21
Robres
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 78 away

creates per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Robres
1.23

allows per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Robres
1.41

finishing

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par
Robres+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Anastasia ↓

Robres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santa Anastasia or draw
67%
Santa Anastasia or Robres
72%
Draw or Robres
62%

Winning margin

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+
16%
Robres wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals
70%
Santa Anastasia 2+ goals
34%
Santa Anastasia 3+ goals
12%
Robres 1+ goals
67%
Robres 2+ goals
30%
Robres 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)
53%
Robres (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Anastasia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Robres away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Anastasia attack 1.00 + Robres defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Robres attack 1.23 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santa Anastasia scores more
38%
level
28%
Robres scores more
33%

Santa Anastasia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santa Anastasia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Anastasia vs Robres

Santa Anastasia and Robres drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fontanazas in Santa Anastasia.