Santa Anastasia 2–1 Giner Torrero: Result & Stats

Santa Anastasia

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Giner Torrero

2/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 24Estadio Fontanazas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Anastasia71%

×Draw18%

Giner Torrero11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnastasiaExpected goals in this matchGiner Torrero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

0.75

Santa Anastasia

2.22

Giner Torrero

0.75

Santa Anastasia creates 196% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Santa Anastasia

1.00

Giner Torrero

0.50

allows per match

Santa Anastasia

1.00

Giner Torrero

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par

Giner Torrero+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Anastasia ↓

Giner Torrero →

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Santa Anastasia or draw

89%

Santa Anastasia or Giner Torrero

82%

Draw or Giner Torrero

29%

Winning margin

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+

47%

Giner Torrero wins by 2+

Team goals

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals

89%

Santa Anastasia 2+ goals

65%

Santa Anastasia 3+ goals

38%

Giner Torrero 1+ goals

53%

Giner Torrero 2+ goals

17%

Giner Torrero 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)

86%

Giner Torrero (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Anastasia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Giner Torrero away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Anastasia attack 1.00 + Giner Torrero defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.22

Giner Torrero attack 0.50 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Santa Anastasia scores more

71%

level

18%

Giner Torrero scores more

11%

Santa Anastasia at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Santa Anastasia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Anastasia vs Giner Torrero

Santa Anastasia beat Giner Torrero 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fontanazas in Santa Anastasia.

Santa Anastasia vs Giner Torrero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Anastasia vs Giner Torrero