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Santa Anastasia vs Borja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Santa Anastasia
Santa Anastasia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Borja
Borja
10/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Fontanazas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Anastasia40%
×Draw29%
Borja30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Anastasia
1.19
Borja
0.99

Santa Anastasia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 62 away

creates per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Borja
0.98

allows per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Borja
1.37

finishing

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par
Borja+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Anastasia ↓

Borja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santa Anastasia or draw
70%
Santa Anastasia or Borja
71%
Draw or Borja
60%

Winning margin

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+
17%
Borja wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals
70%
Santa Anastasia 2+ goals
33%
Santa Anastasia 3+ goals
12%
Borja 1+ goals
63%
Borja 2+ goals
26%
Borja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)
57%
Borja (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Anastasia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Borja away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Anastasia attack 1.00 + Borja defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Borja attack 0.98 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Anastasia scores more
40%
level
29%
Borja scores more
30%

Santa Anastasia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Anastasia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Santa Anastasia 3–0 Borja

Santa Anastasia beat Borja 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fontanazas in Santa Anastasia.