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Santa Anastasia vs Binéfar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Santa Anastasia
Santa Anastasia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Binéfar
Binéfar
11/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Estadio Fontanazas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Santa Anastasia35%
×Draw29%
Binéfar37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Anastasia
1.10
Binéfar
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 111 away

creates per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Binéfar
1.27

allows per match

Santa Anastasia
1.00
Binéfar
1.21

finishing

Santa Anastasia+0.00on par
Binéfar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Anastasia ↓

Binéfar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santa Anastasia or draw
63%
Santa Anastasia or Binéfar
71%
Draw or Binéfar
65%

Winning margin

Santa Anastasia wins by 2+
14%
Binéfar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Santa Anastasia 1+ goals
67%
Santa Anastasia 2+ goals
30%
Santa Anastasia 3+ goals
10%
Binéfar 1+ goals
68%
Binéfar 2+ goals
32%
Binéfar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Anastasia (draw refunded)
49%
Binéfar (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Anastasia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Binéfar away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Anastasia attack 1.00 + Binéfar defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Binéfar attack 1.27 + Santa Anastasia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Anastasia scores more
35%
level
29%
Binéfar scores more
37%

Binéfar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Binéfar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Santa Anastasia 1–1 Binéfar

Santa Anastasia and Binéfar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Fontanazas in Santa Anastasia.