Santa Ana 3–2 Unión Adarve: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unión Adarve

12/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana29%

×Draw25%

Unión Adarve46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchUnión Adarve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.57

Santa Ana

1.19

Unión Adarve

1.57

Unión Adarve creates 32% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

1.10

creates per match

1.18

1.97

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Unión Adarve

1.18

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Unión Adarve

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Unión Adarve →

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

54%

Santa Ana or Unión Adarve

75%

Draw or Unión Adarve

71%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

12%

Unión Adarve wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

70%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

33%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

12%

Unión Adarve 1+ goals

79%

Unión Adarve 2+ goals

46%

Unión Adarve 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

39%

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Ana scores more

29%

level

25%

Unión Adarve scores more

46%

Unión Adarve at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Unión Adarve

Santa Ana beat Unión Adarve 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 6, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.

Santa Ana vs Unión Adarve — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Unión Adarve