Santa Ana 1–2 Sporting San Jose: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

FT

1 – 2

Sporting San Jose

9/29/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 12Estadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Santa Ana40%

×Draw26%

Sporting San Jose34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchSporting San Jose

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.25

Santa Ana

1.38

Sporting San Jose

1.25

Santa Ana creates 10% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 39 away

1.72

creates per match

1.31

1.18

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.72

Sporting San Jose

1.31

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.18

Sporting San Jose

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Sporting San Jose+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Sporting San Jose →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

66%

Santa Ana or Sporting San Jose

74%

Draw or Sporting San Jose

60%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

19%

Sporting San Jose wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

75%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

40%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

16%

Sporting San Jose 1+ goals

71%

Sporting San Jose 2+ goals

36%

Sporting San Jose 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

54%

Sporting San Jose (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Sporting San Jose away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Sporting San Jose defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting San Jose attack 1.31 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Ana scores more

40%

level

26%

Sporting San Jose scores more

34%

Santa Ana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff