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Santa Ana vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
2/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana36%
×Draw24%
San Fernando Henares40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.47
San Fernando Henares
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
60%
Santa Ana or San Fernando Henares
76%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
64%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
17%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
77%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
43%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
18%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
79%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
46%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
48%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santa Ana scores more
36%
level
24%
San Fernando Henares scores more
40%

San Fernando Henares at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Fernando Henares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Santa Ana 4–2 San Fernando Henares

Santa Ana beat San Fernando Henares 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.