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Santa Ana vs RSD Alcalá — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
RSD Alcalá
RSD Alcalá
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana27%
×Draw25%
RSD Alcalá48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.15
RSD Alcalá
1.60

RSD Alcalá creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 99 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
RSD Alcalá
1.23

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
RSD Alcalá
1.20

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
RSD Alcalá+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

RSD Alcalá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
52%
Santa Ana or RSD Alcalá
75%
Draw or RSD Alcalá
73%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
11%
RSD Alcalá wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
68%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
32%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
11%
RSD Alcalá 1+ goals
80%
RSD Alcalá 2+ goals
47%
RSD Alcalá 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
36%
RSD Alcalá (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

RSD Alcalá away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + RSD Alcalá defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

RSD Alcalá attack 1.23 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santa Ana scores more
27%
level
25%
RSD Alcalá scores more
48%

RSD Alcalá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RSD Alcalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs RSD Alcalá

RSD Alcalá beat Santa Ana 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.