Santa Ana 2–1 Quepos Cambute: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quepos Cambute

4/16/2024

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Santa Ana46%

×Draw23%

Quepos Cambute31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchQuepos Cambute

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.39

Santa Ana

1.75

Quepos Cambute

1.39

Santa Ana creates 26% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 71 away

1.72

creates per match

1.59

1.18

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.72

Quepos Cambute

1.59

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.18

Quepos Cambute

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Quepos Cambute →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

69%

Santa Ana or Quepos Cambute

77%

Draw or Quepos Cambute

54%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

25%

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

83%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

52%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

25%

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

75%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

40%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

60%

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Santa Ana scores more

46%

level

23%

Quepos Cambute scores more

31%

Santa Ana at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff