Santa Ana 1–5 Pozuelo Alarcón: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

1 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Pozuelo Alarcón

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana31%

×Draw26%

Pozuelo Alarcón43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchPozuelo Alarcón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.46

Santa Ana

1.20

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.46

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 22% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 97 away

1.10

creates per match

0.96

1.97

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Pozuelo Alarcón

0.96

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Pozuelo Alarcón

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

57%

Santa Ana or Pozuelo Alarcón

74%

Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón

69%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

13%

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

70%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

34%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

12%

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals

77%

Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals

43%

Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

42%

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santa Ana scores more

31%

level

26%

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more

43%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Pozuelo Alarcón

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Santa Ana 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.

Santa Ana vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santa Ana vs Pozuelo Alarcón