Santa Ana vs Moratalaz: Preview & Prediction

Santa Ana

CANC

22:00

Moratalaz

5/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 38Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana33%

×Draw25%

Moratalaz42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.54

Santa Ana

1.32

Moratalaz

1.54

Moratalaz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 48 away

1.10

creates per match

1.10

1.97

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Moratalaz →

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

58%

Santa Ana or Moratalaz

75%

Draw or Moratalaz

67%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

14%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

73%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

38%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

15%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

79%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

45%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

43%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santa Ana scores more

33%

level

25%

Moratalaz scores more

42%

Moratalaz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Ana vs Moratalaz — Match Preview

Santa Ana face Moratalaz on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Santa Ana host Moratalaz at Polideportivo Santa Ana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Santa Ana vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Santa Ana vs Moratalaz — Match Preview