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Santa Ana vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
2/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana39%
×Draw25%
El Álamo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.47
El Álamo
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
64%
Santa Ana or El Álamo
75%
Draw or El Álamo
61%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
19%
El Álamo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
77%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
43%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
18%
El Álamo 1+ goals
76%
El Álamo 2+ goals
41%
El Álamo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
52%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.47

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santa Ana scores more
39%
level
25%
El Álamo scores more
36%

Santa Ana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Santa Ana 2–1 El Álamo

Santa Ana beat El Álamo 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.