Santa Ana 0–2 Complutense: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Complutense

2/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 18Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana37%

×Draw27%

Complutense35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchComplutense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.22

Santa Ana

1.26

Complutense

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 36 away

1.10

creates per match

0.47

1.97

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.10

Complutense

0.47

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.97

Complutense

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Complutense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Complutense →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

65%

Santa Ana or Complutense

73%

Draw or Complutense

63%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

16%

Complutense wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

72%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

36%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

13%

Complutense 1+ goals

70%

Complutense 2+ goals

34%

Complutense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

51%

Complutense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Complutense away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.42 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Complutense defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Complutense attack 0.47 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santa Ana scores more

37%

level

27%

Complutense scores more

35%

Santa Ana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff