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Santa Ana vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 1Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana35%
×Draw25%
Atlético Pinto41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.40
Atlético Pinto
1.54

Atlético Pinto creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
59%
Santa Ana or Atlético Pinto
75%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
65%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
75%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
41%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
45%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santa Ana scores more
35%
level
25%
Atlético Pinto scores more
41%

Atlético Pinto at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Ana 0 – 1 Atlético Pinto

Atlético Pinto beat Santa Ana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.