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Santa Ana vs Aserri FC — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aserri FC
Aserri FC
1/26/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 3Estadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Santa Ana51%
×Draw24%
Aserri FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.70
Aserri FC
1.13

Santa Ana creates 50% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 106 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.72
Aserri FC
1.07

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.18
Aserri FC
1.68

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Aserri FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Aserri FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
75%
Santa Ana or Aserri FC
76%
Draw or Aserri FC
49%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
27%
Aserri FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
82%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
51%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
24%
Aserri FC 1+ goals
68%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
31%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
67%
Aserri FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Aserri FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.68 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Aserri FC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.70

Aserri FC attack 1.07 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santa Ana scores more
51%
level
24%
Aserri FC scores more
25%

Santa Ana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Santa Ana 2–1 Aserri FC

Santa Ana beat Aserri FC 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Piedades in Santa Ana.