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Aserri FC vs Santa Ana — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Aserri FC
Aserri FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Ana
Santa Ana
2/13/2026Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Aserri FC38%
×Draw26%
Santa Ana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aserri FC
1.38
Santa Ana
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 110 away

creates per match

Aserri FC
1.32
Santa Ana
1.41

allows per match

Aserri FC
1.25
Santa Ana
1.44

finishing

Aserri FC+0.00on par
Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aserri FC ↓

Santa Ana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aserri FC or draw
64%
Aserri FC or Santa Ana
74%
Draw or Santa Ana
62%

Winning margin

Aserri FC wins by 2+
18%
Santa Ana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aserri FC 1+ goals
75%
Aserri FC 2+ goals
40%
Aserri FC 3+ goals
16%
Santa Ana 1+ goals
74%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
38%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aserri FC (draw refunded)
52%
Santa Ana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aserri FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 104 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aserri FC attack 1.32 + Santa Ana defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Santa Ana attack 1.41 + Aserri FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aserri FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Santa Ana scores more
36%

Aserri FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aserri FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aserri FC vs Santa Ana

Aserri FC and Santa Ana drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on February 13, 2026.