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Santa Ana vs AS Puma Generalena — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
CANC
00:00
AS Puma Generalena
AS Puma Generalena
3/22/2020Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 15Estadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Santa Ana56%
×Draw23%
AS Puma Generalena21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.81
AS Puma Generalena
1.03

Santa Ana creates 76% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 73 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.72
AS Puma Generalena
0.89

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.18
AS Puma Generalena
1.90

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

AS Puma Generalena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
79%
Santa Ana or AS Puma Generalena
77%
Draw or AS Puma Generalena
44%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
31%
AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
84%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
54%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
27%
AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals
64%
AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals
28%
AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
72%
AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.90 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.89 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Santa Ana scores more
56%
level
23%
AS Puma Generalena scores more
21%

Santa Ana at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Ana vs AS Puma Generalena — Match Preview

Santa Ana face AS Puma Generalena on March 22, 2020 in this Liga de Ascenso fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Santa Ana host AS Puma Generalena at Estadio de Piedades.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.