Santa Ana 5–2 Antioquia: Result & Stats

Santa Ana

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Antioquia

11/18/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio de Piedades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Santa Ana53%

×Draw23%

Antioquia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa AnaExpected goals in this matchAntioquia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.17

Santa Ana

1.83

Antioquia

1.17

Santa Ana creates 56% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 32 away

1.72

creates per match

1.16

1.18

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Santa Ana

1.72

Antioquia

1.16

allows per match

Santa Ana

1.18

Antioquia

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Antioquia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw

76%

Santa Ana or Antioquia

77%

Draw or Antioquia

47%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+

30%

Antioquia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals

84%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

54%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

28%

Antioquia 1+ goals

69%

Antioquia 2+ goals

33%

Antioquia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

68%

Antioquia (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.18 · 109 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.72 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Santa Ana defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santa Ana scores more

53%

level

23%

Antioquia scores more

24%

Santa Ana at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santa Ana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff