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Santa Ana vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Santa Ana
Santa Ana
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Polideportivo Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santa Ana26%
×Draw25%
Alcorcón II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Ana
1.10
Alcorcón II
1.61

Alcorcón II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 97 away

creates per match

Santa Ana
1.10
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Santa Ana
1.97
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Santa Ana+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Ana ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santa Ana or draw
51%
Santa Ana or Alcorcón II
75%
Draw or Alcorcón II
74%

Winning margin

Santa Ana wins by 2+
10%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Santa Ana 1+ goals
67%
Santa Ana 2+ goals
30%
Santa Ana 3+ goals
10%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
80%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
48%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Santa Ana (draw refunded)
35%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Ana at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Ana attack 1.10 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Santa Ana defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Ana scores more
26%
level
25%
Alcorcón II scores more
49%

Alcorcón II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Alcorcón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Santa Ana 0–1 Alcorcón II

Alcorcón II beat Santa Ana 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Santa Ana in Madrid.