Sant Andreu 2–2 Terrassa: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Terrassa

Josu Rodríguez 59'

Joan Noguera 14'

Sergi Arranz 34' (pen)

David Corominas 5'

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 19Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sant Andreu39%

×Draw28%

Terrassa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchTerrassa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.07

Sant Andreu

1.21

Terrassa

1.07

Sant Andreu creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 28 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

0.78

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Terrassa

1.36

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Terrassa

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Terrassa →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

68%

Sant Andreu or Terrassa

72%

Draw or Terrassa

61%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

17%

Terrassa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

70%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

34%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

12%

Terrassa 1+ goals

66%

Terrassa 2+ goals

29%

Terrassa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

55%

Terrassa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.21

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

39%

level

28%

Terrassa scores more

32%

Sant Andreu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

David Corominas

13'

Kevin← Alex Fernández

14'

Joan Noguera

34'

Sergi ArranzPenalty

56'

Genís Blasco← Jaume Pascual

59'

Josu Rodríguez

61'

Adrián Rivas← Sergi Serrano

74'

Sergi Piña← Elhadji Bandeh

80'

Domi Berlanga← Kilian Villaverde

89'

Laro Setién← Josu Rodríguez

Sant

Terrassa

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mikel Azparren

61'▲Adrián Rivas←▼Sergi Serrano

74'▲Sergi Piña←▼Elhadji Bandeh

89'▲Laro Setién←▼Josu Rodríguez

Sant Andreu substitutes

RivasPiñaSetién

Manager: Molist

13'▲Kevin←▼Alex Fernández

56'▲Genís Blasco←▼Jaume Pascual

80'▲Domi Berlanga←▼Kilian Villaverde

Terrassa substitutes

KevinBlascoBerlanga

Match Recap: Sant Andreu vs Terrassa

Sant Andreu and Terrassa drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 12, 2020.

Goals: David Corominas (5'), Joan Noguera (14'), Sergi Arranz (34' pen), Josu Rodríguez (59').

The match was played at Camp Municipal Narcís Sala in Barcelona.

Sant Andreu vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sant Andreu vs Terrassa