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Sant Andreu vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
FT
3 – 0
Reus
Reus
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 28Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sant Andreu80%
×Draw15%
Reus5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sant Andreu
2.28
Reus
0.39

Sant Andreu creates 485% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sant Andreu
1.56
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Sant Andreu
0.78
Reus
3.00

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw
95%
Sant Andreu or Reus
85%
Draw or Reus
20%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+
56%
Reus wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals
90%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
66%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
39%
Reus 1+ goals
32%
Reus 2+ goals
6%
Reus 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
94%
Reus (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.28

Reus attack 0.00 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sant Andreu scores more
80%
level
15%
Reus scores more
5%

Sant Andreu at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sant Andreu vs Reus

Sant Andreu beat Reus 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Narcís Sala in Barcelona.