Sant Andreu 2–0 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

G. Fassani 67'

Alberto Garcia 56'

9/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sant Andreu49%

×Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.93

Sant Andreu

1.45

Pobla Mafumet

0.93

Sant Andreu creates 56% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

1.56

creates per match

1.07

0.78

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

76%

Sant Andreu or Pobla Mafumet

73%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

51%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

24%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

77%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

42%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

18%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

61%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

24%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

67%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

49%

level

27%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

24%

Sant Andreu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Albert Querol← Óscar Gómez

55'

Daniel Molina← Jordi Avilés

56'

Alberto Garcia

67'

G. Fassani

69'

Guzmán← Álvaro Caro

69'

Óscar Romero← Marc Montalvo

70'

Sergio Mulero← J. Carreón

73'

L. Sunderland← Alberto Garcia

80'

Cesc Martínez← Fidel Rey

85'

Iker Garcia← Pau Morer

85'

Eric López← Marc Doménech

Sant

Pobla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Garcia

Manager: David Pirri

70'▲Sergio Mulero←▼J. Carreón

73'▲L. Sunderland←▼Alberto Garcia

85'▲Iker Garcia←▼Pau Morer

85'▲Eric López←▼Marc Doménech

Sant Andreu substitutes

MuleroSunderlandGarciaLópez

Manager: Adolfo Baines

55'▲Albert Querol←▼Óscar Gómez

55'▲Daniel Molina←▼Jordi Avilés

69'▲Guzmán←▼Álvaro Caro

69'▲Óscar Romero←▼Marc Montalvo

80'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Fidel Rey

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

QuerolMolinaGuzmánRomeroMartínez