Sant Andreu 1–1 Europa Fc: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Europa Fc

4/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Sant Andreu39%

×Draw27%

Europa Fc34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchEuropa Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.17

Sant Andreu

1.29

Europa Fc

1.17

Sant Andreu creates 10% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 42 away

1.56

creates per match

1.55

0.78

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Europa Fc

1.55

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Europa Fc

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Europa Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Europa Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

66%

Sant Andreu or Europa Fc

73%

Draw or Europa Fc

61%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

18%

Europa Fc wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

72%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

37%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

14%

Europa Fc 1+ goals

69%

Europa Fc 2+ goals

33%

Europa Fc 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

54%

Europa Fc (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Europa Fc away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.02 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Europa Fc defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Europa Fc attack 1.55 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

39%

level

27%

Europa Fc scores more

34%

Sant Andreu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff