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Sant Andreu vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Castelldefels
Castelldefels
10/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Sant Andreu48%
×Draw27%
Castelldefels25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sant Andreu
1.40
Castelldefels
0.93

Sant Andreu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sant Andreu
1.56
Castelldefels
1.07

allows per match

Sant Andreu
0.78
Castelldefels
1.24

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par
Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Castelldefels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw
75%
Sant Andreu or Castelldefels
73%
Draw or Castelldefels
52%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+
23%
Castelldefels wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals
75%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
41%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
17%
Castelldefels 1+ goals
61%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
24%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
66%
Castelldefels (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sant Andreu scores more
48%
level
27%
Castelldefels scores more
25%

Sant Andreu at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Sant Andreu 2–0 Castelldefels

Sant Andreu beat Castelldefels 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Narcís Sala in Barcelona.