Sant Andreu 2–0 Banyoles: Result & Stats

Sant Andreu

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banyoles

12/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Camp Municipal Narcís Sala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sant Andreu55%

×Draw27%

Banyoles19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sant AndreuExpected goals in this matchBanyoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.74

Sant Andreu

1.47

Banyoles

0.74

Sant Andreu creates 99% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

1.56

creates per match

0.70

0.78

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Sant Andreu

1.56

Banyoles

0.70

allows per match

Sant Andreu

0.78

Banyoles

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Banyoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sant Andreu ↓

Banyoles →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sant Andreu or draw

81%

Sant Andreu or Banyoles

73%

Draw or Banyoles

45%

Winning margin

Sant Andreu wins by 2+

28%

Banyoles wins by 2+

Team goals

Sant Andreu 1+ goals

77%

Sant Andreu 2+ goals

43%

Sant Andreu 3+ goals

18%

Banyoles 1+ goals

52%

Banyoles 2+ goals

17%

Banyoles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sant Andreu (draw refunded)

74%

Banyoles (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sant Andreu at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 59 matches

Banyoles away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sant Andreu attack 1.56 + Banyoles defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Banyoles attack 0.70 + Sant Andreu defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sant Andreu scores more

55%

level

27%

Banyoles scores more

19%

Sant Andreu at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff