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Sansinena vs Germinal de Rawson — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Germinal de Rawson
Germinal de Rawson
5/21/2023Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 12Estadio Luis Molina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sansinena49%
×Draw28%
Germinal de Rawson23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.36
Germinal de Rawson
0.84

Sansinena creates 62% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Germinal de Rawson
0.80

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Germinal de Rawson
1.47

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Germinal de Rawson+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Germinal de Rawson →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
77%
Sansinena or Germinal de Rawson
72%
Draw or Germinal de Rawson
51%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
23%
Germinal de Rawson wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
74%
Sansinena 2+ goals
39%
Sansinena 3+ goals
16%
Germinal de Rawson 1+ goals
57%
Germinal de Rawson 2+ goals
21%
Germinal de Rawson 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
68%
Germinal de Rawson (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Germinal de Rawson away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Germinal de Rawson defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Germinal de Rawson attack 0.80 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sansinena scores more
49%
level
28%
Germinal de Rawson scores more
23%

Sansinena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sansinena vs Germinal de Rawson

Sansinena beat Germinal de Rawson 3-0 in Torneo Federal A on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina in General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires.