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Sansinena vs Deportivo Maipu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sansinena
Sansinena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
3/1/2020Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · South - 21Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sansinena46%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Maipu25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sansinena
1.27
Deportivo Maipu
0.84

Sansinena creates 51% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sansinena
1.26
Deportivo Maipu
0.79

allows per match

Sansinena
0.89
Deportivo Maipu
1.29

finishing

Sansinena+0.00on par
Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sansinena ↓

Deportivo Maipu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sansinena or draw
75%
Sansinena or Deportivo Maipu
71%
Draw or Deportivo Maipu
54%

Winning margin

Sansinena wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sansinena 1+ goals
72%
Sansinena 2+ goals
36%
Sansinena 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
57%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
21%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sansinena (draw refunded)
65%
Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sansinena at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sansinena attack 1.26 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.79 + Sansinena defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sansinena scores more
46%
level
29%
Deportivo Maipu scores more
25%

Sansinena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sansinena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sansinena vs Deportivo Maipu

Sansinena and Deportivo Maipu drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Molina (General Daniel Cerri, Provincia de Buenos Aires).